In the Know Phil Fernandez Naples Daily News USA TODAY NETWORK – FLORIDA
Report predicts potential ‘tough months ahead’
Southwest Florida real estate “may be facing some tough months ahead,” according to a new market home-selling analysis.
And as the nation celebrated the July4th weekend, additional fresh comparison data shows that Collier County was among U.S. metro areas where prices are falling the most.
Here’s what to know about those topics, and also find out how to share your thoughts on the return of two treasured Collier and Lee county icons.
How much did home costs drop in Naples area? What’s the rank?
Only about 25% of the nation’s 180 largest metro areas are seeing drops, and Collier County is having among the biggest, according to new findings by the national Consumer Affairs publication.
Collier ranked 18th, based on the review of Zillow median purchases from April 2024 to April 2025 with a 2.4% tumble from $612,604 to $597,938 as compared to America’s 3.5% increase. Nationally, the median is $360,125.
Which ZIP codes are seeing million-dollar prices skyrocket?
And the slide for the Naples Area Board of Realtors known as NABOR is continuing, based on its newest numbers.
The overall median closed in May decreased 9.1% to $590,000 from $649,000 in May 2024. Of all areas and residential types reported, single-family in South Naples (34112, 34113) reported the largest decrease, 23.1% to $772,500 from $940,000 in May 2024. But the luxury market is still strong; single family in the Naples Beach area (34102, 34103, 34108) during May increased 18.6% to $2.7 million from just under $2.3 million in May 2024.
What’s major factor in loss of jobs that has affected real estate?
Lee County, which also has been witnessing a downturn, didn’t make the Top 20 list, based on its April transactions. However, a July 2 piece by the Wall Street Journal using stats provided by Homes.com found that Lee has had the nation’s biggest drop in a two-year period dating to May 2023, with an 11% plop. The report cited a sagging labor market as one challenge.
And, indeed, as In the Know has reported, Southwest Florida’s economy hinges on tourism. That was crippled Sept. 29, 2022 when deadly Hurricane Ian also wiped out jobs including at the industry’s largest Lee County employer, Captiva’s South Seas, which according to Florida Gulf Coast University, had had more than 800 positions at the time. It’s in the midst of a $1 billion redevelopment that’s partly snarled in complicated, multifaceted legal wrangling.
‘FM Beach, Sanibel and Captiva will take years to fully recover’
“Regions with strong housing markets tend to be communities with strong job markets, and Southwest Florida is no different,” South Seas Ownership Group President Greg Spencer told In the Know on the eve of Independence Day. “Ian delivered a setback in 2022 because our economy is heavily dependent on tourism, and those effects are lingering because Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel and Captiva will take years to fully recover.
“South Seas is such an important project for our region’s economy. The resort has partially reopened and has 197 employees today, including 46 who maintained employment during post-Hurricane Ian cleanup. Over the six-year construction period, we will generate 1,667 jobs annually in Lee County. By 2029 when redevelopment is complete, we are projecting 813 permanent, direct onsite resort jobs with another 1,918 permanent jobs in Lee County, generating an annual labor income of $100.5 million.”
What’s unexpected Lee County area with higher condo values?
In the major housing price dive, condominiums are also playing a huge role for NABOR and the Lee County-based Royal Palm Coast Realtor Association, with both experiencing a May sales slump of more than 16%, as compared to a year ago. Condos have generally been facing tougher standards after the 2021 Surfside building collapse and higher homeowner association fees tied in part to that, insurance rate increases since Ian and other factors.
Collier’s newest numbers show the condo median at $450,000, down nearly 11% from $505,000 in May 2024. It’s worse for Royal Palm at $259,500, a 13.5% descent, and for its single-family, it was $362,900, off by 6.7%. May condos dropped in every Lee County region for Royal Palm except one: more affordable Lehigh Acres, where the median reached $178,000, up 25.4%.
How much did record SWFL medians rise during pandemic?
For the overall area, after a three-year period tied to the pandemic that saw record medians rise upwards of 75%, isn’t at least part of what’s happening a correction? According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, long-term appreciation of U.S. abodes is historically 4.25% annually. Compared to a decade ago, current local listings for the most part are well ahead of that rate.
“These trends reflect a healthy adjustment period and opportunities for both buyers and sellers,” said Karen Borrelli, Royal Palm president.
How many more homes on market for Naples & Lee County area?
But with a few exceptions, a disconnect continues between some sellers hesitant to adjust and a market full of potential buyers as the inventory continues to rise. NABOR and Royal Palm both have more than 20% more homes available than a year ago.
“Motivated sellers are still coming out ahead as equity grew exponentially during the pandemic,” said Jillian Young, president of Premiere Plus Realty.
Where are condos taking 137% longer to sell in SW Florida?
Others are not so motivated, a reason domiciles are lingering at least 25% longer on the NABOR and Royal Palm market than a year ago. That translates to 86 average days for NABOR. For condos, Royal Palm’s median days are up 47% to 81 days. And while Lehigh is the only Lee area for the latter to have an increase in condo pricing, it did take 137% longer to sell them, reaching a total of 84 days.
“Days on market is the enemy of home values,” said Jeff Jones, broker at Keller Williams Naples. “The number of homes that have been on the market for over 90 days is concerning. One major reason for this is that these sellers are still trying to get more than the market is willing to give. Our message to these sellers is simple: If you have no motivation to sell, there’s no reason to be in the market today. Serious sellers are willing to adapt and be open to more aggressive pricing strategies.”
SWFL real estate: ‘We may be facing some tough months ahead’
Real estate agencies are preparing their agents for unchartered waters in an industry that’s two-thirds female and where 27% of all Realtors have only been in the business since 2020, according to National Association of Real-tors 2024 data.
“This is the kind of market where good brokers shine,” Mike Hughes, vice president and general manager for Downing-Frye Realty said in a June 20 NABOR report. “You must become the head cheerleader and keep spirits up while telling agents the truth: That we may be facing some tough months ahead so having honest conversations about realistic pricing with your clients is absolutely necessary.”